A live map that tracks frontlines of the war in Ukraine was edited to show a fake Russian advance on the city of Myrnohrad on November 15. The edit coincided with the resolution of a bet on Polymarket, a site where users can bet on anything from basketball games to presidential election and ongoing conflicts. If Russia captured Myrnohrad by the middle of November, then some gamblers would make money. According to the map that Polymarket relies on, they secured the town just before 10:48 UTC on November 15. The bet resolved and then, mysteriously, the map was edited again and the Russian advance vanished.
The degenerate gamblers on Polymarket are making money by betting on the outcomes of battles big and small in the war between Ukraine and Russia. To adjudicate the real time exchange of territory in a complicated war, Polymarket uses a map generated by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a DC-based think tank that monitors conflict around the globe.
One of ISW’s most famous products is its live map of the war in Ukraine. The think tank updates the map throughout the day based on a number of different factors including on the ground reports. The map is considered the gold standard for reporting on the current front lines of the conflict, so much so that Polymarket uses it to resolve bets on its website.
The battle around Myrnohrad has dragged on for weeks and Polymarket has run bets on Russia capturing the site since September. News around the pending battle has generated more than $1 million in trading volume for the Polymarket bet “Will Russia capture Myrnohrad.” According to Polymarket, “this market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya located in Myrnohrad by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to ‘NO.’” On November 15, just before one of the bets was resolved, someone at ISW edited its map to show that Russia had advanced through the intersection and taken control of it. After the market resolved, the red shading on the map vanished, suggesting someone at ISW editing permissions on the map had tweaked it ahead of the market resolving.
According to Polymarket’s ledger, the market resolved without dispute and paid out its winnings. Polymarket did not immediately respond to 404 Media’s request for a comment about the incident.
ISW acknowledged the stealth edit, but did not say if it was made because of the betting markets. “It has come to ISW’s attention that an unauthorized and unapproved edit to the interactive map of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was made on the night of November 15-16 EST. The unauthorized edit was removed before the day’s normal workflow began on November 16 and did not affect ISW mapping on that or any subsequent day. The edit did not form any part of the assessment of authorized map changes on that or any other day. We apologize to our readers and the users of our maps for this incident,” ISW said in a statement on its website.
ISW did say it isn’t happy that Polymarket is using its map of the war as a gambling resource.
“ISW is committed to providing trusted, objective assessments of conflicts that pose threats to the United States and its allies and partners to inform decision-makers, journalists, humanitarian organizations, and citizens about devastating wars,” the think tank told 404 Media. “ISW has become aware that some organizations and individuals are promoting betting on the course of the war in Ukraine and that ISW’s maps are being used to adjudicate that betting. ISW strongly disapproves of such activities and strenuously objects to the use of our maps for such purposes, for which we emphatically do not give consent.”
But ISW can’t do anything to stop people from gambling on the outcome of a brutal conflict and the prediction markets are full of gamblers laying money on various aspects of the conflict. Will Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? has a trading volume of more than $46 million. Polymarket is trending “no.” Will Russia enter Khatine by December 31? is a smaller bet with a little more than $5,000 in trading volume.
Practically every town and city along the frontlines of the war between Russia and Ukraine has a market and gamblers with an interest in geopolitics can get lost in the minutia about the war. To be on the outcome of a war is grotesque. On Polymarket and other predictive gambling sites, millions of dollars trade hands based on the outcomes of battles that kill hundreds of people. It also creates an incentive for the manipulation of the war and data about the war. If someone involved can make extra cash by manipulating a map, they will. It’s 2025 and war is still a racket. Humans have just figured out new ways to profit from it.
